Good morning. In this week’s edition: Would Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz in a Conflict?;Two LPG Carriers Catch Fire at Chittagong During STS Transfer; and India Forms Consortium To Acquire & Develop Foreign Terminals For Strategic Gain.

MARITIME HEADLINE

The Potential Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Amidst Rising Tensions

In response to recent escalations, questions are mounting about Iran’s capacity to close the vital Strait of Hormuz—a waterway responsible for transporting a significant portion of the world’s oil—should Israel counter-attack following the Iranian missile strikes on October 1st.

The Iranian coastline extends for over 100 nautical miles along the Strait, providing a strategic advantage for deploying various military assets. These include anti-shipping missiles, drones, and a vast arsenal of naval forces, including frigates and speedboats operated by the IRGC. Even a limited Iranian assault could deter shipping traffic, raising insurance premiums and creating hesitation among shipping companies.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have far-reaching consequences, not only for Iran but also for global markets. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar rely heavily on the Strait for imports and exports. A prolonged shutdown could also trigger a military response from nations dependent on these vital oil supplies, particularly China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Iran’s economy is tightly linked to the oil flowing through this Strait, with over 65% of government revenues generated from oil exports. If Iran were to halt traffic, it would not only disrupt its own economic flow but also risk significant internal instability due to potential rises in basic living costs for its citizens.

While both Washington and Tel Aviv have indicated a potential restraint from targeting oil and nuclear facilities, skepticism remains. Israel may seek to avoid an all-out conflict in the Strait, instead focusing on dismantling Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure to limit potential retaliatory strikes. However, with multiple missile sites dispersed across Iran, this would require extensive resources and a calculated approach to neutralize these threats.

As Israel and Iran continue to navigate this volatile period, the potential for a change in Iranian leadership is a factor worth monitoring. If reformists were to rise in Iran, the country might reduce its aggressive regional posture. For now, though, the stakes remain high, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have unprecedented global implications.

MESSAGE FOR YOU

WORLD MARITIME

-🚨On October 11, a Chinese maritime militia vessel collided with a Philippine fisheries patrol near Thitu Island, causing minor damage to the patrol ship. The Philippine Bureau of Fisheries reported that the Chinese vessel executed dangerous maneuvers, sideswiping the BRP Datu Cabaylo. Video shows the Chinese crew casually observing as the trawler made contact, while China claimed the Philippine vessel acted dangerously. The incident took place in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, a region China asserts control over via its “nine-dash line” policy, despite international law affirming Philippine jurisdiction.

-🛟When foreign navies transit the Taiwan Strait silently, they may unintentionally bolster China’s claim to these waters. China escorts these ships quietly, reinforcing an image of control—unlike its aggressive approach in the South China Sea. Following Speaker Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan, Chinese naval activity around the island surged, yet its response to foreign ships in the strait is subdued, often involving tracking rather than confrontation. By not declaring freedom of navigation, these transits risk strengthening China’s claims over the strait, despite it being over 130 km wide and recognized as international waters under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

-🔥On Sunday, a fire broke out during an alleged illegal ship-to-ship transfer between LPG carriers Captain Nikolas and B-LPG Sophia off Kutubdia, Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Coast Guard and Navy contained the blaze, and all 31 crew members escaped with no major injuries. While the Captain Nikolas had minimal damage, the Sophia was significantly affected. Reports suggest the Captain Nikolas’ cargo, linked to Iran, may have been misdeclared. This marks the third and fourth major vessel fires in the area in two weeks, following deadly incidents aboard the Banglar Shourabh and Banglar Jyoti. An investigation is underway.

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INDIAN MARITIME

-🎯India is forming a consortium of state-owned port companies—India Ports Global Ltd (IPGL), Indian Port Rail and Ropeway Corp Ltd (IPRCL), and Sagarmala Development Co Ltd (SDCL)—to enhance its international terminal operations. The consortium aims to bolster India’s maritime capabilities, focusing on strategic routes like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). IPGL will manage foreign terminals, IPRCL will handle infrastructure, and SDCL will secure funding. This partnership follows India’s recent operational rights acquisitions at Sittwe port in Myanmar and Mongla Port in Bangladesh.

-♟️On October 14, 2024, the Indian Navy launched its first multi-purpose vessel (MPV), Samarthak, at L&T Shipyard in Chennai. Part of a two-ship project contracted to L&T, the vessel aims to enhance operational adaptability. Named “Supporter,” Samarthak can tow ships, launch and recover targets, operate autonomous vehicles, and test indigenous weapons. The contract was signed on March 25, 2022. This launch marks a significant advancement in India’s indigenous shipbuilding efforts, supporting government initiatives like ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ and ‘Make in India.’

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